Punters Panel: Horse racing betting tips for this weekend

Group 1 action returns to centre stage this weekend as the Sprint Cup headlines a cracking Saturday of racing at Haydock, with testing conditions adding another layer to the puzzle for punters.

This week’s Odds Now Horse Racing Punters’ Panel tackles the big sprint, picks out the best of the supporting action and previews a fascinating September Stakes at Kempton featuring Constitution Hill.

Our panel also heads to Ascot, nominates the two-year-olds they’re most excited to see this autumn and gives its verdict on the newly-released 2027 fixture list.

Introducing the Odds Now Horse Racing Punters’ Panel

Adam Smith: Betting industry veteran and Flat racing enthusiast who forms one half of the Races Now double act.

Harry Fowler: Regular Odds Now racing contributor who works within the industry and provides weekly analysis in his Racing Review column.

Joe O'Donnell: Racing lover and long-time Races Now viewer, supporter and contributor. Better known to many as the 'Scot of the Channel'.

Joe Nathan: First-time Races Now Punters’ Panel contributor. You can find him on X at @priceiskey.

Who wins the Group 1 Sprint Cup at Haydock?

Joe O'Donnell: This race has cut up with soft or even heavy ground forecast. Last year we had 17 runners and only nine are declared as I write. You could run this race five times over and you would get five different winners. I'm going to back Paborus each-way at a decent price. The drop back to six furlongs will suit this gelding and the horse has won on varying ground conditions.

Joe Nathan: With the ground looking very testing, you need to be with those proven mudlarks. The three obvious ones are Almeraq, Kind Of Blue and Marvelman. Kind Of Blue has purposely been held back this season for an autumn campaign. He just doesn’t act the same on fast ground and should be going close. Marvelman’s York run is strong form and, providing he can take this quick return and drop in trip in his stride, he has to be a big player. The vote marginally goes to Almeraq, a class act who won the red-hot Diamond Jubilee. You can forgive his July Cup run having backed up quickly, and he can get back on track here. When he bolted up at Yarmouth on soft ground, Jim Crowley said “he likes a lot of juice in the ground”, so he should have no problem on that front. He sets the standard with potential improvement still to come.

Adam Smith: The lack of international and Irish runners gives it a much different look to the other Group 1 sprints we've seen this year. I think this is quite straightforward. Almeraq is the only 2026 Group 1 winner in the field, doesn't mind soft ground and has the best form in the race by far, beating all the right horses at Royal Ascot. Line through the July Cup – I cannot emphasise enough how different the Ascot six-furlong course is when compared to the July Course.

Harry Fowler: The ground is going to be pretty soft and that’ll suit Marvelman. The last time he was on soft ground, he was a three-and-three-quarter-length winner of the Park Stakes at Doncaster. The drop back to six furlongs I don’t think will be a problem in these conditions and he looks sure to run a big race.

Any other fancies on a cracking Haydock card?

Joe O'Donnell: In the 3:05 I will bet Hermetic each-way. The horse has been running well in decent races at Newcastle and Ascot. The ground has come right for this winner on soft ground over in France.

Joe Nathan: In the 4:50 at Haydock, Brian has a very good record when the mud is flying and he’s another horse who seems to have been waiting for the ground to change. His strong-running second to handicap blot Forty Years On in June reads well, and he could be too good for this field with conditions in his favour.

Adam Smith: I'm having a Richard Hannon day out in races one and two. Persica in the opener likes cut in the ground and just never got into the race at York. A return to the form shown in his four starts before that sees him bang in the mix here. I like Rafe's Da Man in the 1:55 and think he should be shorter. A bit of a boy in his early starts but much more professional at Goodwood last time. Connections clearly think softer ground isn't a problem for this Ghaiyyath colt and the step up to a mile is ideal for him.

Harry Fowler: In the Old Borough Cup I fancy Stressfree. He hasn’t been at his best this season but ran a cracker when sixth in the Ebor and is now 2lb lower. The ground won’t be a problem for him and he looks a bet at 8/1.

What do you make of Constitution Hill’s return in the September Stakes at Kempton?

Joe O'Donnell: This is a big drop in class for Gethin and a big rise in class for Constitution Hill. Official ratings have Gethin off 125 and Constitution Hill off 101. Here both are racing off levels and, dealing in facts not hype, Constitution Hill has to improve by 24lb to get close to a proven Group-class winner. So I'm strong on Gethin, a proven all-weather winner.

Joe Nathan: It will be great to see Constitution Hill back out again and the place will erupt if he manages to win, but I think he’s up against it and a shorter price than he should be. Gethin is highly thought of by connections and they are hoping he can turn into a serious Arc de Triomphe player. If that’s the case, he should be taking care of this field on Saturday. He has his quirks, finding it hard to settle in a couple of races, but he’s still run to high numbers and I expect class to see him through on a course he’s already won at.

Adam Smith: Firstly, I think it's very unlikely Constitution Hill runs in the Melbourne Cup and even less likely to win it given he doesn't stay two miles on the Flat! I was really disappointed with Gethin in the Eclipse. He's not been seen since and these are much calmer waters, but I'm in no rush to back him at 6/4.

Harry Fowler: The race revolves around Gethin behaving himself. He has tendencies to race keenly but I’m sure he is the best in the race. I do think Constitution Hill will place but, of course, can’t be backing him at 11/2. It looks a class race to watch and, like any race involving Constitution Hill, it’ll have plenty of eyes on it.

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More ITV action from Ascot – any bets?

Joe O'Donnell: In the 2:10, it's a not very original pick but I will back Heyzoom. He was a good fourth in the King George V at Royal Ascot and the first three in that race have all come out and won next time. So the form, as you would expect, is rock solid.

Joe Nathan: My main play at Ascot is Thunder Call. This is a young, improving type going up in trip, which is likely to suit. I don’t think it’s the strongest race for the class and I can see him coming through fast and late in the closing stages.

Adam Smith: I tipped Addison Grey last week on the basis that I think he's a horse in form and enjoying the step up to seven furlongs. He was a non-runner at Goodwood but is due to run at Ascot on ground currently described as 'good'. The same logic applies, for all this is a tough little race.

Harry Fowler: In the 4:00 I like Tryst. I am working on the fact that the ground will be at least good, as expected. Two nice victories at Yarmouth and Newmarket, with the form of both franked since. She went to York last time on a hat-trick and disappointed, like she has done every time she has encountered softer ground. No prices at the minute, but I expect her to be around 8/1+ for an each-way bet.

Which two-year-old are you most looking forward to seeing in the autumn Group 1s?

Joe O'Donnell: Dr Rascal is a two-year-old I am very much keeping a beady eye on from the Cole stable. This horse won well in the Vintage Stakes at Glorious Goodwood and is likely to head next to the Curragh for the National Stakes.

Joe Nathan: Tough question as there are a few! Senorita Bonita just looks an absolute rocket and I can’t wait to see her again in the Cheveley Park at Newmarket, which I think she will win. The Dewhurst is the trial of trials, and I am particularly looking forward to Monogram. The dogs were barking before he made his debut and he didn’t disappoint. He missed the break from a wide gate, which left him with plenty to do. Still at the back of the field two out, he produced a tremendous turn of foot to get up in the final stride. Joseph O’Brien mentioned in the post-race comments the regard in which they held him and that “he hadn’t been squeezed for his debut”, while he was still very green. A work in progress with stacks of potential. It will be very exciting to see how he progresses going forward.

Adam Smith: I thought Senorita Bonita was fantastic in France last time but this question isn't for those that have already won a Group 1. I think Charlie Appleby will finish the year with a bang after a pretty poor season thus far. Dream Castle and Inner City Blues are the obvious ones there.

Harry Fowler: I couldn’t pick between two, but I'll go for one filly and one colt. The filly is Morny winner Senorita Bonita – that turn of foot last time was electric. The colt is Monogram. He’s a lot more of an unknown as he’s only won a maiden, but he was so impressive and that Dewhurst is set to be a cracker.

The 2027 fixture list looks virtually identical to this year – what are your thoughts?

Joe O'Donnell: I am not surprised by this at all. However, brilliant news that Towcester is back – the Hamilton Park of National Hunt racing. In time, consideration should be given to improving Sunday racing fixtures and adding more fixtures on Bank Holidays. The recent Bank Holiday saw most courses packed.

Joe Nathan: Racing's fixture list? A question possibly beyond my pay scale! Going forward, we may struggle to have enough horses to support the current list. But where do you start to take fixtures away? Perhaps racecourses could be more imaginative in their marketing, pricing and use of their assets over the whole year? Where do paying customers fit into ARC's business plan?

Adam Smith: It could not be more obvious that we need less racing – all the metrics are there. But, as clearly proven by the Lord Allen debacle, nothing will change as the racecourses hold the power. The slow death continues.

Harry Fowler: Are we surprised? All we can do is let racing know the detriment to the whole sport caused by the amount of racing but, if the response is ‘let’s drop by 18’ or whatever it is, then what hope does the sport have? I understand it’s a tricky situation to fix, but there is simply too much racing.

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