Punters Panel: Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe expert betting insight
Sat, 04 Oct 2025
Sat, 04 Oct 2025
It's a double-header of Punters Panel insight for horse racing fans this weekend as five of our expert contributors offer up their thoughts and fancies from a mouthwatering 2025 Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe card in Longchamp on Sunday.
Before we get stuck in, here’s a little bit more on the five men answering the questions.
SD - The self-proclaimed ‘star of the show’ on Races Now, who has been going viral with his daily tips and betting ring analysis over the past year.
Adam Smith - A betting industry veteran, flat lover and one half of our Races Now double act.
Harry Fowler - Another of Odds Now’s regular racing contributors, currently working in the industry.
Lee Jones - A betting industry veteran, operating as a senior horse racing trader at a leading bookmaker and widely respected judge.
Ande Humphrey - Friend of and occasional guest contributor on Races Now who has specialised in French racing for over a decade.
SD: Diamond Necklace should be hard to beat after her Leopardstown rout. In other news, starting at 12.40 is ridiculous!
AS: This looks like a showdown beaten unbeaten in four French contender Green Spirit and faultless in two Diamond Necklace for Aidan O'Brien. Both won at odds on last time so we don't know how good they are. But I will say Diamond Necklace looked pretty special at Leopardstown so my vote goes to her.
HF: Going keep this one simple. I am a huge fan of Diamond Necklace. I was hoping to see her next Friday in the Fillies Mile, but she goes here and could take some beating.
LJ: This looks a lot more open to me than the current betting and I'll go with Green Spirit, who looked pretty good last time.
AH: Green Spirit was a real go-er on her last outing and she would be my pick for this. Aidan O'Brien has two in but all focus is on the €1.7m Diamond Necklace, who cost more than her namesake and was impressive last time out. She holds a good chance. Aylin rates a threat for the Karl Burke team and the part owners will want a big performance on their weekend, but I feel she may have more on her plate this time.
SD: There are too many unexposed French types here to be dogmatic, I'm afraid.
AS: Of the three for the away team, Puerto Rico is bang exposed and no star, while A Bit Of Spirit won an average blanket finish last time. So I am led to Time To Run for Charlie Appleby, who has been off since July – but Charlie doesn't go to Paris for a holiday and this is his only Longchamp runner of the weekend. Time To Run can improve past Puerto Rico and A Bit Of Spirit and the French challenge is average at best, to my eye.
HF: This one looks one for the French. I like Rayif. Was very impressive last time out when putting the Coventry fourth Andab and an Aidan O’Brien short favourite to the sword, stretching away. Expect more improvement to come.
LJ: Nightime did everything wrong last time but still managed to win and I believe can improve again to take this race.
AH: I wasn't overly taken with Nighttime despite his good performance last time and prefer A Bit Of Spirit to run well. The form he holds is some of the best 2yo form for the colts and if he can put it all together then there's a chance.
Aidan O'Brien threw a curveball with Puerto Rico running over Italy but he has been very busy this year and it could be a step too far. If it gets attritional then Campacite is a confirmed stayer at the trip so he would have to be watched closely.
SD: Mgheera might surprise a few. She is progressive and looks well berthed. The problem with this race is that the form book is not necessarily replicated in the result.
AS: It will be chaotic as usual. Good to soft in October is far from ideal for Asfoora and she will surely drift. The French sprinters are better than usual to be fair. I'm a She's Quality loyalist so will end up backing her as I usually do in these sprints. Just a shame she hasn't won in seven starts!
HF: I like Mgheera. I think she ran a good race last time out at the Curragh. I am slightly worried about her slows starts but I think around 14/1 looks big considering course form. She doesn’t mind softer ground and that was a good effort last time.
LJ: I really liked Rayveka but the horrendous draw has put me off. Montielle has been lightly raced, got some fair form in the book and lively draw, so he should go very close.
AH: Huge participation and good luck to whoever can pick the winner.
Monteille got a great draw in one if he can break well, whilst Rayevka got the periphique draw unfortunately. No selection.
SD: It’s a weak Arc. I still think there is juice in Los Angeles’s price and he could supply a win for Ballydoyle unexpectedly. Daryz, well drawn and badly ridden last time out, is worth a saver.
AS: I've tipped Kalpana ante post for this weeks ago and the rain forecast helps her chances, although I was disappointed by her prep run. I've been tipping Leffard all week at a big price. A Group One winner over course and distance (this is deeper waters), drawn fine in six and yet he's still 50/1 which I think is way too big.
HF: When asked a month ago, I said Minnie Hauk was my idea of the winner. She was around 7-8/1 at that time and I’m not going to change my mind now. Have loved watching her this season and think she will improve even more for this step up after her last two runs being rather easy assignments.
LJ: I really haven't got a strong view on this renewal. If I was having a bet, it would be Giavellotto in the place markets.
AH: Great looking race with chances a plenty.Aventure and Minnie Hauk are both huge candidates to run superb races and of the two, I would be with the Aidan runner. However, I have been with Leffard for a while now and at a wild price, we can have big dreams. Drawn in six, it is a great spot and if they keep him within a few lengths of the inevitable pace then he can motor home.
SD: Does Tamfana stay? It’s inconclusive but if she does I think she’s a great chance here. I’m sick of See The Fire fan club creating a myriad of excuses for substandard performances.
AS: I'm all over See The Fire and think she is head and shoulders above her 11 opponents here. Tipped at 9/2 on our YouTube channel on Wednesday, now 5/2 but I think she'll win as long as the ground doesn't get extreme, which it shouldn't.
HF: I am in the See The Fire camp. I do respect Tamfana but not seen her since May and will she stay? See The Fire has had a really good season, only 1 victory but running good races against the boys and at the very top level. Goodwood we can just put a line through with basically everything that went on that day. Rain isn’t a worry was 5th in last years Champion Stakes on soft ground and think she could take some beating back against the girls.
LJ: As long as the ground is not very soft, I think See The Fire should have far to much for these.
AH: Unfortunately my hope for this race does not run in Lady Of Spain and the race looks at the mercy now of See The Fire. I gave less than pleasant remarks about her on the YouTube videos but I'm not sure she has much to beat here and must be the selection. Jessie Harrington's runner is a Group winner and could be the best of the rest.
SD: More Thunder looks short enough . He’s a very sexy profile but I’m not yet sold on the substance. Sajir is certainly as progressive, and is a much bigger price, so is viable.
AS: 16 runners on this seven furlong, two-turn track could be carnage. More Thunder should drift as he wants quicker ground. This will be a no bet race to me. Plenty of bets earlier in the card as you can tell!
HF: Looking to take a chance here on Topgear, who has only had the three runs this season and started off by beating Sajir over course and distance. Disappointed at Ascot on ground too quick and I think the same could be said for Deauville last time. I think at a double figure price, he is an each way bet
LJ: I really like Zaringa back down to 7f and a hold up ride is what she's wanted for a while. She should take lot of beating now, with More Thunder having a terrible draw in 16.
AH: I will stick with Sajir in this race. Ive followed this horse for a while and I think Fabre has earmarked this for the son of Make Believe to repeat his father's antics a huge ten years on. The performance last time was very good indeed and the relationship with Oisin Murphy is something to be onside with.
It is a hot renewal with Group winners all over the race and a huge improver in More Thunder. Very difficult race with reasons for at least 5 of the runners.
The Odds Now Editorial team are the people who make OddsNow.com tick, publishing all the crucial content that helps you become a better bettor.
The Odds Now Editorial team are the people who make OddsNow.com tick, publishing all the crucial content that helps you become a better bettor.
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